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RMIS – Raw Materials Information System
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Foresight analysis: background, context and dual-use technologies

Foresight analysis: background, context and dual-use technologies

Foresight is the discipline of exploring, anticipating and shaping the future to help building and using collective intelligence in a structured, and systemic way to anticipate developments. Strategic foresight, on the other hand, seeks to embed foresight into European Union policy-making.  Strategic Foresight is not about predicting the future; it explores different possible futures, alongside the opportunities and challenges they might present.

Part of Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič’s mission is to lead the efforts to embed strategic foresight at the heart of EU policymaking. The Secretariat-General and the Joint Research Centre lead the implementation of the mandate (the latter drawing on its internal foresight capacities). The Commission’s Strategic Foresight Network ensures long-term policy coordination between all Directorates-General.  As part of these developments, the Commission produces an annual Strategic Foresight Report, which informs the Commission Work Programmes and multi-annual programming exercises.  See Strategic foresight (europa.eu)

In the context of raw materials, the EC has produced analyses both in relation to supply as well as demand:

Updated from the Critical Raw Materials in Strategic Sectors – A Foresight Study (2020) the recently launched Supply chain analysis and material demand forecast in strategic technologies and sectors in the EU – A foresight study analyses the five most relevant industrial sectors of the EU economy, (renewables, e-mobility, energy industry, ICT, and aerospace & defence) within fifteen technologies.   See also RMIS - Raw Materials Information System (europa.eu) for more details related to sectors and technologies, including their value chains, raw materials demand, as well as circularity.

In terms of supply of raw materials, forecasts are essential for both primary and secondary raw materials. Examples of EU-level analyses include in the context of Ukraine: see RMIS - Raw Materials Information System (europa.eu)