Open strategic autonomy
The concept of open strategic autonomy is strictly linked to the urgency that the Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted. The pandemic has revealed the relevance of external dependencies and vulnerabilities, and the consequent necessity for diversification of domestic and external sources of supply. It also underlined the interconnections of the economies in the global scale, and the importance of cooperation and trust[1].
As reported by the Communication from the European Commission on the “Trade Policy Review - An Open, Sustainable and Assertive Trade Policy”
“Open strategic autonomy emphasises the EU’s ability to make its own choices and shape the world around it through leadership and engagement, reflecting its strategic interests and values. (…) . It builds on the importance of openness, recalling the EU’s commitment to open and fair trade with well-functioning, diversified and sustainable global value chains. It encompasses:
- resilience and competitiveness to strengthen the EU’s economy;
- sustainability and fairness, reflecting the need for responsible and fair EU action;
- assertiveness and rules-based cooperation to showcase the EU’s preference for international cooperation and dialogue, but also its readiness to combat unfair practices and use autonomous tools to pursue its interests where needed.”
Under this framework, as part of the 2021 European Commission Strategic Foresight Agenda, the JRC published the Science for Policy report:?EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond.
The report is a systematic and systemic analysis of the trends and opportunities for the future of the open strategic autonomy, looking at 2040 and beyond. It defines 4 scenarios (‘Green Leadership, ‘Complex Prosperity’, ‘Economic Growth Above All’ and ‘Retreat Inwards’) of possible futures of the global standing of the EU and open strategic autonomy in 2040. The future scenarios concept is based on assumptions gathered through the participatory process of stakeholders and experts, using surveys and dedicated workshops and on desk research, including literature review and policy analysis.
The results are divided into 5 identified areas of interest (geopolitics, technology, economy, environment, society), and for each one is reported the current strengths and weaknesses and the future opportunities and challenges, implications, and, finally, the scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040.