The data viewer developed for this website is based on a NEW update of the ProSUM battery data, realised in collaboration with researchers from TU Berlin and Recharge. These datasets complement the official Eurostat – Batteries dataset. For research purposes, the scope of the information here is wider, covering all battery chemistries and applications, detailed composition trends, the stocks and lifespans and longer times series. This includes checking the consistency of placed on market (inputs) and waste generated volumes (potential outputs) in relation to the computed and measured stocks.
A total of 2.65 million tons of batteries (all chemistries!) are placed on the European market in 2018, estimated to reach about 2.79 million tons in the year 2021. In weight, about 64% of the batteries placed on the market are SLI batteries (starting, lighting, and ignition). This share consists of lead-acid rechargeable batteries mainly used in automobiles, followed by industrial applications for e.g. medical equipment or power storage.
Other applications, such as e-bikes, cordless power tools, and portable PCs are less relevant in terms of battery mass put on the market, but highly relevant for their material content.
Even though still comparatively low in number of pieces, traction batteries used for e-mobility are contributing increasingly to total weights. In 2017, traction batteries already represented more than half of the total mass of all Li-ion applications placed on the market. The figure below shows this trend is likely to continue in the coming years.
The new dataset available in the data viewer shows that battery types like rechargeable batteries have been gaining an increasing market share relative to traditional single-use and SLI batteries. Until recently, nickel batteries were the main choice for hybrid vehicles, energy storage and for electronic products as visualised in the graph below. In the last years, Li-ion batteries have been quickly replacing these across multiple applications. These trends obviously affect the amount and type of consumption of critical raw materials (CRMs) over time.
The 2019 data update corrected previous ProSUM predictions on the chemistry mix expected. For instance, the previously (2016) expected technology shift towards lower cobalt containing NMC chemistries (Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt), in the form of pouch cells replacing LCO (Lithium Cobalt Oxide) in laptops and tablets, did not yet materialise as quickly as expected. Instead, the new data shows that LCO batteries still remain the main technology for cell phones, tablets and the majority of laptops. These uncertainties related to market uptakes will remain and affect the presented forecasts. Hence, the drawing below presents estimations forecast for the period 2018 until - 2021, obtained by is an extrapolation of observed trends. Regular updates of the information below are therefore needed, in particular for the demand from new applications like xEV becoming a reality. Also specific changes from one dominant chemistry to another need to be monitored closely.
Increasing pressures on the supply of cobalt are pushing the market towards a reduced cobalt content in cathode materials for Li-ion batteries. However, the new dataset shows that despite the lower cobalt content, due to high increases in unit sales, the total mass of cobalt in batteries such as NMC, NCA (Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide) and LCO continues to increase rapidly. This is largely driven by the growth of the e-mobility sector. The diagram below shows the amount of raw materials in batteries placed on the market over time, for all relevant battery materials, present in all chemistries, excluding lead-acid and zinc ones. (In the data viewer click on the corresponding legend keys to (de)select).
Regarding the Li-ion batteries, incremental improvements have recently been made in the past years in terms of gravimetric density (more Wh/kg) and volumetric energy density (more Wh/l). Battery research now focuses on new anodes (lithium metal, silicon), new cathodes (with high voltage, high capacity) and more tight packaging (less electrolyte, thinner separators and thinner current collectors). The main aim is to increase the specific energy stored (Wh per pack) while maintaining the high specific power output (W) capability. At the same time, enhancing safety becomes increasingly important. Here, research focuses on fire-retarding electrolyte additives, ionic liquid electrolytes, the use of ceramic separators, ceramic coating of electrodes and solid-state batteries. Increasing safety, however, means a trade-off in specific energy and power. Such research needs to address also the potential issues linked to the materials supply, in particular of lithium and cobalt used in certain types of cathodes. For example, by changing the cathode chemistry mix, the overall proportion of cobalt in Li-ion batteries can decrease as a result of its substitution by other materials such as nickel and/or aluminium (Blagoeva et al., 2019a).
A number of risk factors, including price volatility and industry concerns over supply shortages, created shifts in the use of chemistries for rechargeable batteries. Over time, this will be leading to a decrease in the use of cobalt per average battery. It is expected that the use of lower cobalt NMC substitutes will prevail in the long term. Although not happening as quickly as anticipated, for example, LCO containing 60% cobalt, applied especially in electronics, is likely to be gradually replaced by NMC, with a cobalt content of 10-30 %.
In the context of xEV batteries, several NMC configurations with different cobalt contents are currently under development. Today, NMC111 (with nickel-cobalt-manganese in the proportion of 1:1:1) is the most commonly used. Until 2020, either NMC111 or NMC532 are thought to remain the first choice for xEVs. Such a trend, combined with the use of NCA with 14 % cobalt now and NCA+ with 5% in the future and a reduced use of cobalt-free cathodes (e.g. LFP - Lithium Iron Phosphate) at least in Europe, is likely to push up cobalt demand before it starts to decline after 2020, driven by substitution efforts. Around 2025 and 2030, other chemistries like NMC622 and NCM811 requiring less cobalt and with higher nickel and aluminium contents, are increasingly likely to be used.
Although there is broad consensus over the reduction of cobalt consumption in batteries (e.g. less cobalt per kWh), at least from 2020 on, there is no general agreement on which cathodes will be prevalent in the future (Alves Dias et al., 2018). The latest estimate of the combined effect of these substitution and improvement efforts is visualised in the graph below, representing the average cobalt content over time per battery:
The answer depends on many factors: trends in the supply, the opening of new mines, the actual speed of xEV uptake in many continents and the change in mobility systems will affect the combined totals. Moreover, the level of substitution of materials, the level of reuse and recycling and, other factors like prices for raw materials, technical and environmental/ social constraints in increasing production, technical and economic lifetime of battery products all significantly affect the balance between supply and demand. In the JRC report ‘Cobalt: demand-supply balances in the transition to electric mobility’ an overall assessment is created, as displayed below.
The assessment as well as the current (2019) cobalt price evolution with relatively low prices recently (see supply section) shows a situation that is not ideal for long-term investment in cobalt mining: There is an expected over-supply in the near future and significant potential for deficits after 2025. The diagram below shows on the left hand side the total global demand for cobalt (green surface) based on the average of various e-mobility scenarios and the projected average supply (blue line), based on actual (planned) production volumes. The right part of the diagram zooms in on the difference between the supply and demand. It should be noted that these values, in particular on the right hand side of the diagram, are highly uncertain. Nevertheless, the general trend indicates a future shortage of cobalt, even in spite of significant cobalt substitution efforts already taken into account.
